Furk è il vostro secure storage personale che recupera i file multimediali e consente lo streaming immediatamente Si può usare per lo streaming video o ascoltare la tua musica dal PC, smartphone, HTPC o anche una console di gioco (Xbox, PS3). Limiti di servizio: limite di banda: fino a 250GB per limite di archiviazione su disco mese: illimitata (a patto che i file sono da fonti pubbliche) Furk non è un armadio di file e di sostegno doesnt filesharing per il profitto. Login o Registrati Login o Crea un account con il tuo identityAll stella Investor tuo bordo sociale preferito su ETF e la rotazione di mercato, con un consumatore sostiene occhio. Ron Rowland è il editorpublisher di AllStarInvestor, dove ha fornito il commentario di mercato, analisi di fondo ETFmutual, e consulenza sulla gestione degli investimenti attiva dal 1991. Oltre a raccogliere numerosi feedback alto rendimento dal Hulbert Financial Digest, la sua newsletter di punta è anche stato nominato Hulberts d'onore in diverse occasioni per le sue prestazioni superiori alla media sia in alto e in basso i mercati. Come fondatore di InvestWithAnEdge, Ron ha creato un sito web leader di tutto originale e analisi ETF indipendenti, il cui contenuto è ampiamente sindacato. InvestWithAnEdge non accetta le eventuali entrate pubblicitarie da sponsor ETF, che lo rende un primo sito web per l'analisi critica e imparziale di ETF, tra cui il popolare Deathwatch ETF e un tempestivo, fonte ma completo di statistiche settore degli ETF. Ron è anche il presidente e fondatore di Capital Cities Asset Management (CCAM), una società di consulenza per gli investimenti registrata che fornisce servizi di gestione, la ricerca e la pianificazione degli investimenti per i clienti individuali e istituzionali. CCAM utilizza competenza Rons con gli ETF per aiutare i clienti a raggiungere i loro obiettivi di investimento. Il rally post-elettorali non mostra segni di cedimento nonostante le numerose previsioni di una imminente inversione. Anzi, al contrario, gli investitori si sono incontrati ogni pausa con il nuovo acquisto fresco, e il numero di gruppi inclusi continua ad espandersi. Il modello Sector Rotation sta facendo un nuovo acquisto in oggi ETRACS Alerian MLP Infrastructure ETN (MLPI). Tiene traccia di un indice di maestri limitata partnership (MLPS) che si concentrano sul trasporto, stoccaggio e trattamento di materie prime energetiche. Con il primo mese del 2017 ora nello specchietto retrovisore, la nuova amministrazione di iniziare la sua terza settimana in ufficio, e la prima volta gli straordinari Super Bowl nel libro dei record, quattro dei nostri cinque modelli stanno facendo i cambiamenti di oggi. Il sistema di mercato classificazione MSCI attualmente categorizza 25 paesi mercati emergenti. Anni fa, l'acronimo BRIC è stato coniato per aiutare a identificare i quattro importanti nazioni dei mercati emergenti di Brasile, Russia, India e Cina. Le obbligazioni, soprattutto a lunga scadenza statunitensi buoni del Tesoro, sono stati interpreti tristi negli ultimi sei mesi. La comprensione della relazione inversa tra prezzo e rendimento spiega la maggior parte dell'azione, ma data la relativamente piccola variazione dei tassi di interesse .. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il presidente eletto Donald Trump non ha carenza di critici, e molti dei suoi piani economici e le proposte sono soddisfatte con disprezzo ridicolo Andor. Tuttavia, non tutti sono un critico, e il supporto è ora emana da fonti inaspettate. Citando Trumps prevede di ridurre le tasse. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. E 'sempre bello quando un nuovo anno ottiene fuori ad un inizio positivo, ma sappiamo tutti che non è una garanzia di una navigazione tranquilla per l'anno. Di particolare interesse sono i guadagni di una settimana postato da molti mercati esteri e ETF. . Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Oggi ricorre il primo giorno di negoziazione del nuovo anno solare. Potreste aver dimenticato già, ma un anno fa, il mercato azionario iniziato il suo peggior inizio di sempre. Il Dow Jones Industrial Average è sceso 276 punti sulla prima. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. La scorsa settimana era costituito da cinque giorni di volumi sotto la media. Questa settimana sarà probabilmente quattro giorni dello stesso. Tuttavia, volume basso non è sinonimo di un mercato noioso. Infatti, il volume ridotto facilita scorte di inviare più grande. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Come previsto, la Federal Reserve ha alzato i tassi di interesse di un quarto di punto percentuale in ultime settimane FOMC incontro e ha suggerito che altri tre escursioni sono alla spina per anno solare 2017. La reazione dei mercati azionari è stata piuttosto in sordina, e la SampP. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. L'ultima riunione del FOMC del 2016 si conclude questo Mercoledì, e gli osservatori si aspettano Fed i tassi di interesse per essere percorsa a piedi in occasione delle riunioni conclusione. Dal momento che l'aumento sembra essere una conclusione scontata, poco o non si prevedono risposta del mercato azionario. Tuttavia, il mercato azionario. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Anche se benchmark di mercato primario stanno mostrando segni di stabilità, grandi divergenze di performance continuano ad annidarsi sotto la superficie. La scorsa settimana, l'energia è aumentato 3.2 mentre la tecnologia è caduto 3.1 per una differenza di 6,3 tra i principali settori statunitensi. A livello internazionale, il Canada è salito 1,4 rispetto a. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il patrimonio manifestazione post-elettorale non mostra alcun segno di cedimento, ma sappiamo tutti cant e non andrà avanti per sempre. Thats per non dire il rally doesnt hanno le gambe è solo che non importa quanto tempo e va lontano,. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Scosse di assestamento dalla sorpresa degli Stati Uniti risultati elettorali continuano a propagarsi attraverso i mercati. Anche se l'entità delle divergenze non era grande come durante la settimana delle elezioni, ultime settimane i risultati hanno prodotto uno stuolo di vincitori e vinti comunque. Avvio. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. I risultati delle elezioni degli Stati Uniti ha sorpreso molti osservatori, e la reazione dei mercati sembrava essere una sorpresa ancora più grande. Il giorno delle elezioni, il sito web del New York Times è stato rintracciando le probabilità di una vittoria Trump in tempo reale. Per quanto i sondaggi hanno iniziato a chiudere,. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Alcuni investitori tendono a preoccuparsi di ogni svolta nei mercati e la notizia, continuamente preoccuparsi riguardo i potenziali impatti di portafoglio. Se a questa categoria, quindi la buona notizia è che si può trarre conforto nel fatto che ci si trovi. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. incertezza del mercato, sotto forma di rischio politico, rischia di prendere il centro della scena questa settimana. Con meno di 180 ore rimanenti per gli elettori di fare le loro scelte finali nelle elezioni presidenziali degli Stati Uniti, le dinamiche politiche di questo ciclo elettorale rimangono. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. America Latina ha registrato un forte rally. Il nostro punto di riferimento per la regione, l'iShares America Latina 40 ETF (ILF), ingrandita 5.2 alto la scorsa settimana ed è in aumento del 15,4 dal settembre 14. E 'saltato un impressionante 47,6 per l'anno, e. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Non accade spesso il dollaro americano si trova in cima alle classifiche di rendimento, ma questo è esattamente ciò che sta avvenendo oggi. Forza del dollaro a volte può essere fatta risalire ad un aumento della domanda di titoli del Tesoro degli Stati Uniti, in particolare da parte di acquirenti stranieri. Tuttavia, ciò non ha. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. pressione di vendita sui segmenti ad alto rendimento azionari intensificato la scorsa settimana con patrimonio immobiliare precipitare 5.3, Utilità cadere 3.8, e Telecom scivolando 2.1. Uno dei nostri ex preferiti, PowerShares SampP 500 Low Volatility (SPLV), è caduto 2.3. Inoltre, uno dei nostri nuovi titoli ad alto dividendo è venuto. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. E 'stata una settimana di grandi oscillazioni di punti che hanno lasciato le grandi benchmark di mercato piatto, mentre l'energia ingrandita 5.0 superiore e Utilità caduto 3.7. Il modello Fixed Income tattica è progettato per fornire reddito corrente e la mitigazione del rischio, quando i tassi di interesse cominciano a. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. All Star investitore apporta tecniche di investimento smart-beta per gli investitori ETF che cercano di guadagnare un vantaggio sui mercati. Abbiamo fornito investitori attivi con facili da seguire portafogli modello per più di un quarto di secolo. Il nostro servizio si è evoluto numerose volte. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il prossimo numero della nostra newsletter è programmato per essere pubblicato questo Giovedi (92.916), e conterrà le raccomandazioni iniziali che i nostri nuovi portafogli modello acquisterà nei mercati vicino il Venerdì (93016). Il mio obiettivo con All Star investitore è semplice:. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. La volatilità è tornato. Dopo essere andato quasi due mesi completi con tutte le mosse quotidiane essere contenuti all'interno di una stretta banda 1, altalene più grandi hanno ripreso per le scorte degli Stati Uniti. Grandi ribasso si sposta di un giorno, come quelli che è accaduto lo scorso Martedì e il Venerdì precedente,. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Venerdì scorso, le scorte sono diminuite, le obbligazioni è andato giù, e l'oro è andato giù. Se si stavano contando sulla classica diversificazione degli investimenti di classe per proteggere il vostro portafoglio, si potrebbe essere deluso. Questo approccio spesso funziona nel lungo termine, periodi più brevi non sono sempre. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Agosto è conclusa ufficialmente Mercoledì scorso, e l'estate è neanche finita finché l'equinozio d'autunno si verifica il 22 settembre, tuttavia, non fatevi appeso su questi aspetti tecnici minori. Anche se i calendari possono essere dire qualcosa di diverso, nella mente della maggior parte degli americani, l'estate si è conclusa. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Le banche centrali di tutto il mondo si sono messi in territorio senza precedenti continuando ad abbassare i tassi di interesse oltre il punto quando hanno raggiunto lo zero. Il concetto di tassi di interesse negativi è un po 'difficile da afferrare, e non tutti sono convinti che lo faranno. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Guardando i principali benchmark di borsa in tutto il mondo, si potrebbe pensare che ci wasnt qualsiasi azione di mercato la scorsa settimana. L'indice SampP 500 era piatta, il Dow Jones Industrial Average era piatta, e l'Indice EAFE era piatta. Il composito Nasdaq. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. I mercati emergenti sono su un rullo, un buon tiro. scorte latino-americani hanno fatto bene la maggior parte dell'anno. L'iShares America Latina 40 ETF (ILF) è la pubblicazione di un enorme guadagno di 38 anni-to-date, nonostante la sofferenza attraverso un quasi 14. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Le relazioni di posti di lavoro mensili hanno prodotto sia rialzo e ribasso sorprese degli ultimi mesi. rilascio venerdì del rapporto di luglio sembra essere della varietà rialzo, con i datori di lavoro l'aggiunta di 255.000 posti di lavoro e molti cittadini che si spostano di nuovo nel mondo del lavoro. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Ti ricordi quando il weekend del Labor Day usato per marcare la fine dell'estate Una volta era un importante delineazione calendario che qualcuno vorrebbe richiesta è stata seconda solo a l'annuale 1 gennaio ribaltamento del calendario. Insieme a . Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. La Federal Reserve sta conducendo una Federal Open Market Committee meeting (FOMC) di due giorni questa settimana. A queste riunioni del FOMC, il Comitato esamina le condizioni economiche e finanziarie, determina la posizione appropriata della politica monetaria, e valuta i rischi per gli obiettivi di lungo periodo. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Nel complesso, è stata una buona settimana per gli stock. I paesi emergenti e gli ETF sono stati particolarmente forti, e si possono vedere molti dei nostri punti di riferimento dei mercati emergenti sono vicino alla parte superiore del grafico delle prestazioni di una settimana. Anche iShares MSCI Turkey (TUR) è stato bene. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Un mese fa, il rapporto di lavoro lugubre causato la Fed di mettere il suo imminente rialzo dei tassi in attesa e ha fornito una spinta per l'oro, cercatori d'oro, obbligazioni del Tesoro americano e valute estere. Come ricorderete, i miseri 38.000 nuovi posti di lavoro è stato. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il mercato è in gran parte recuperato dalla sua caduta rapida e tagliente a fine giugno. L'indice SampP 500 ha chiuso di nuovo sopra 2100 il Venerdì, ed è solo 1,3 timido del suo record stabilito nel maggio 2015. Alcuni settori, come ad esempio. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Ignorate le fearmongers. Secondo i titoli e gli esperti, il referendum britannico di lasciare l'Unione europea (UE) è a dir poco un disastro. Si poteva quasi sentire loro che rivendicano il cielo stava cadendo come le scorte vendute in tutto il. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Se non si pensi che i mercati reagivano alla possibilità del brevetto britannico in uscita da parte dell'Unione europea, quindi le azioni di mercato di oggi forse vi convincerà. Nel corso dei quattro giorni di negoziazione che terminano Martedì scorso (61416), l'iShares MSCI Regno Unito ETF. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. I mercati sembravano prendere una brusca fine della scorsa settimana. Dopo aver chiuso all'interno di mezzo punto percentuale di un massimo storico il Mercoledì, l'indice SampP 500 è sceso circa 1,1 il Giovedi e Venerdì. Normalmente, una piccola goccia così in due giorni avrebbe fatto. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Potrebbe essere solo un colpo di fortuna, ma per ora, il rapporto sull'occupazione maggio pubblicato Venerdì scorso rappresenta il peggior clima creare posti di lavoro dal settembre 2010. I magri 38.000 nuovi posti di lavoro è sceso ben al di sotto della stima di consenso di 160.000. Aggiungendo al danno la beffa,. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il commento in questo spazio una settimana fa si è concentrato su come la Fed aveva spostato gli ingranaggi per quanto riguarda la possibilità di un aumento dei tassi di interesse di giugno. Proprio quando il consenso stava costruendo verso la prossima escursione che si verificano alla riunione di settembre FOMC, il. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Fino alla scorsa settimana, ogni Fed comunicato stampa, dichiarazione politica, e il discorso degli ultimi sei mesi ha fatto eco i dati economici che suggeriscono che l'economia è lenta e vulnerabile. Come tale, la Fed, e gli osservatori Fed, tenuto spingendo indietro la data prevista. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. mercati dell'America Latina, il Brasile in particolare, hanno inviato alcune forti oscillazioni degli ultimi mesi. Gran parte l'azione sembrava essere centrato sul potenziale di impeachment di Dilma Rousseff, il presidente del Brasile, con il mercato in aumento più alto di ogni. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Negli ultimi otto anni o giù di lì, i rapporti mensili di lavoro sono stati tra i dati economici più attesi. Forse lo sono ancora, ma il loro impatto e la notiziabilità sembra aver diminuito notevolmente nel corso dell'ultimo anno. Venerdì scorso, . Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. La dispersione in una settimana i risultati delle prestazioni era abbastanza grande la scorsa settimana, con uno spread di 11,3 tra oro in alto e il Giappone sul fondo. lingotti d'oro è salito a gennaio e febbraio, e dopo due mesi di consolidamento, ora. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Tutti si aspettano che la prossima mossa da parte del FOMC sarà quello di rialzare i tassi di interesse. Tuttavia, dal momento che i tassi di escursioni nel mese di dicembre, per la prima volta dopo anni, la Fed ha fatto del suo meglio per plasmare le aspettative degli investitori verso l'idea. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il prezzo del greggio continua a dominare il ciclo di notizie finanziarie. A differenza di movimenti storici dei prezzi del petrolio, che in genere hanno prodotto movimenti opposti dei prezzi delle azioni, le rotazioni dello scorso anno hanno appoggiato verso una correlazione positiva. La sua non troppo spesso. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Controtendenza mosse sono state discusse spesso in questa colonna. La maggior parte dei contesti di mercato può essere descritto in termini di maggiori prezzi trendrising, la caduta dei prezzi, o movimenti laterali. Sarebbe bello se tutti i movimenti si sono verificati in linea retta, allora avremmo. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Gli esseri umani sono stati in viaggio sin da quando i loro piedi toccarono la superficie della terra. Quegli stessi piedi a condizione che la modalità iniziale di trasporto. Abbiamo inventato la ruota, animali domestici, e barche costruite. Alla fine, abbiamo creato biciclette, treni, automobili, aerei,. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. C'erano solo quattro giorni di negoziazione nel corso della settimana di vacanza-accorciato, ma che non hanno impedito lo sviluppo di alcuni grandi divergenze. Un 3.6 differenziale tra il 0,7 guadagno di settimane Salute Carethe più performanti sectorand la perdita del 2,7 per l'Energia è il. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il grande vincitore di questa settimana passato è stato settore industriale, la pubblicazione di un impressionante 3,5 anticipo. Il settore è stato tranquillamente in movimento più alto da metà gennaio, e ha ottenuto un po 'più forte il Venerdì, come ha stabilito un nuovo massimo di 10 mesi. Il segmento del trasporto. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il dollaro americano ha preso un colpo in negoziazione della scorsa settimana. Il suo declino 1.2 ha fatto sì che l'ETF media internazionale che riesca a copertura valutaria ha avuto un vantaggio relativo prestazioni 1.2. In cima alla tabella delle prestazioni di una settimana è il Canada. I iShares MSCI senza copertura. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Una settimana fa, in questa colonna, ho discusso la rotazione costruttiva che ho visto in atto nel mercato. Le mie osservazioni inclusi mosse che sembrava più forte di una semplice controtendenza rimbalzi, resistenza al di fuori dei settori Utilities e Beni di prima necessità tradizionalmente difensivi, e. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Sto notando quello che io considero azione interessante nel mercato azionario di recente. Invece degli esecutori più deboli di montaggio i rimbalzi più forti durante i raduni di soccorso, e viceversa, sembra che vi sia più costruttivo posto azione presa. Forse è . Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Azioni radunato fortemente la scorsa settimana e stanno cercando di superare le tendenze negative che hanno dominato questa azione anni di mercato. misure di mercato più ampio sono vicine a superare le loro prime correnti discendenti di febbraio, ma sono tutt'altro che eliminando il loro slancio negativo e persino. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Azioni aperto fortemente al rialzo questa mattina, ma la questione della sostenibilità si blocca in aria. Gli investitori hanno visto molti di questi inizia ottimistiche degli ultimi due mesi, solo per guardare la dissolvenza impennata iniziale durante il resto della sessione. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Se pensavate che la recente ondata di volatilità del mercato ha fatto il suo corso, poi ultime settimane e questa azione di mercato mattina è probabilmente causando a riconsiderare questa posizione. E 'facile da ottenere cullati in un falso senso di calma. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. A meno che non si sta pesantemente investito in titoli correlati con la salute o siano in cortocircuito il mercato, c'è una buona probabilità che hai fatto dei soldi la settimana scorsa. Anche se ci si trovasse in contanti, è maturato ancora una settimana di interessi, nonostante il misero. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Canada, il nostro vicino del nord, è spesso trascurato dagli investitori statunitensi che cercano un'esposizione sui mercati azionari esteri. Uno dei motivi è che, anche se il Canada è infatti un paese diverso, non è poi così estraneo al brevetto. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. I consumatori hanno da tempo noto della correlazione tra i prezzi del petrolio greggio e benzina. Quando sentono il prezzo del petrolio è in aumento, essi stessi brace per l'inevitabile urto alla pompa. Questi movimenti ascendenti sembrano avvenire quasi contemporaneamente, con la benzina. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Sono di solito uno scettico quando vedo i titoli che proclamavano la peggiore performance del Dow Jones Industrial Average in chissà quanti anni. Tale era il caso durante il fine settimana, quando il Wall Street Journal ha detto che la performance Dows scorso. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. titoli finanziari di notizie durante il fine settimana proclamato che 2015 è stato il peggiore degli ultimi sette anni, per i mercati finanziari. Se pensavate che porterebbe a un nuovo inizio e positivo per il 2016, poi si è solo parzialmente corretta. . Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. La settimana scorsa, abbiamo sottolineato che, nonostante le loro richieste di una maggiore efficienza del sistema fiscale, molti ETF fanno distribuzioni imponibili agli azionisti. A differenza dei dividendi, che gli investitori sembrano adorare, gli investitori tendono ad arrabbiarsi se le distribuzioni sono costituiti da plusvalenze. Suo . Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. La sua epoca di distribuzione, e questo significa che tutti i dati di performance dei fondi comuni e ETF richiedono controllo supplementare. Ciò è particolarmente vero se si sta pensando di acquistare o vendere qualsiasi cosa in base a performance a breve termine. Prima di effettuare tali spostamenti, controllare. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. fondi obbligazionari ad alto rendimento, spesso chiamati fondi junk-bond, sono state avendo un periodo difficile. Dopo anni di distacco rendimenti totali positivi (apprezzamento del capitale più dividendi), la classe di attività è su un percorso di chiudere 2015 rendimenti negativi. I due più grandi ETF. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. osservatori Fed hanno ora qualcosa di nuovo di cui preoccuparsi. Alcuni sono stati delusi per un certo numero di anni, volendo la Fed di sbarazzarsi della sua politica zero tasso di interesse (ZIRP) e aumentare i tassi. Sulla base delle relazioni di lavoro di novembre e commenti. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Grigio Giovedi Venerdì nero Cyber Lunedi countrys rivenditori, e le loro imprese di pubblicità di Madison Avenue, stanno facendo del loro meglio per farvi credere è necessario spendere grandi quantità di denaro in questi giorni particolari. Tuttavia, niente potrebbe essere più lontano dalla. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Se il mercato è una corsa di cavalli, e molti investitori sembrano ritenere che il parere, poi i cavalli sono ora arrotondamento curva quattro e si prepara per il tratto casa. Come ogni appassionato di corse di cavalli vi dirà, è il. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Ogni settimana il Dow Jones Industrial Average scende 665 punti non è una buona settimana. Tuttavia, una persona ha bisogno di guardare indietro solo tre mesi per trovare un esempio del Dow precipitare 1.017 punti in una settimana di calendario. Come . Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Secondo il Bureau of Labor Statistics, i datori di lavoro hanno creato 271.000 nuovi posti di lavoro nel mese di ottobre, che era ben avanti rispetto alla stima di consenso di 190.000. Agosto e settembre cifre sono state riviste al rialzo da 12.000 posti di lavoro. Il tasso di disoccupazione è sceso al 5,0, il più basso. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Due settimane fa abbiamo discusso la divergenza con i segmenti di mercato emergenti, evidenziato dal una settimana 3.2 guadagno per la Cina e il 3,3 perdite per l'America Latina. La scorsa settimana l'attenzione si è spostata per divergenze con gli Stati Uniti, come la tecnologia ha saltato 4.0 mentre l'energia. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. La scorsa settimana, abbiamo notato la grande divergenza nella performance dei diversi segmenti di mercato emergenti. Ciò è stato evidenziato dal una settimana 3.2 guadagno per la Cina, mentre l'America Latina ha registrato una perdita 3.3. Il mercato stava mostrando divergenze di nuovo la scorsa settimana, ma. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il grafico delle prestazioni di una settimana è spesso inclinato in una direzione o nell'altra. Poiché la maggior parte delle categorie rappresentano vari gruppi di equità, sembra ragionevole che le scorte globali tendono a muoversi insieme. Anche se possono esibire correlazione nei loro movimenti direzionali,. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. I gruppi battuti-down radunato fortemente la scorsa settimana. Energia in cima alla tabella delle prestazioni di una settimana dopo aver perso 40 precedenti quindici mesi. Latina è 2 sulla carta e condivide una storia quindici mesi simile a quella di energia. Andando . Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Sei settimane fa, la giornata è iniziata con un forte attacco di vendita di panico. Molti titoli sono stati interrotti, e le regole emanate per prevenire il ripetersi dei 2010 Flash Crash aggravato il problema. Con molti non scorte individuali di trading, gli ETF. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Nel mondo finanziario, la frase questa volta è diverso viene in genere utilizzato per descrivere una situazione o ambiente che storicamente ha portato ad un esito sfavorevole, ma l'altoparlante è in qualche modo convinto quelle stesse circostanze saranno ora produrre un risultato favorevole. . Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. La Fed ha deciso di non aumentare i tassi di interesse ai ultime settimane FOMC riunione. Nella conferenza stampa post-meeting, presidente Janet Yellen ha dichiarato che credeva il primo rialzo dei tassi avverrà prima della fine dell'anno. Se è così, che lascia il. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Nonostante gli apparentemente piccoli spostamenti giorno per giorno nel vasto benchmark di mercato la scorsa settimana, la volatilità rimane presente ed è una parte importante del paesaggio. Questo diventa più evidente se si considerano i grafici delle prestazioni di una settimana che sono inclusi nel nostro settimanale. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il tasso di disoccupazione negli Stati Uniti è sceso a un minimo di 7 anni di 5.1 nel mese di agosto. Il Dipartimento del Lavoro ha pubblicato il suo report mensili Venerdì scorso prima che il paese ha intrapreso i suoi 3 giorni di festa dei lavoratori annuale. L'indagine istituzione ha affermato che i datori di lavoro aggiunti 173.000 persone. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. E 'stata una settimana selvaggia che ha visto il Dow piombino 1.089 punti nel verbale di apertura e l'indice di volatilità CBOE, noto anche come il VIX e l'indice di paura, picco sopra 53. Come significativi sono stati questi movimenti intraday. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il Dow Jones Industrial Average, probabilmente il più famoso e più ampiamente conosciuto indice del mercato azionario nel mondo, è sceso 530 punti il Venerdì. Per la settimana, si è spento più di 1.017 punti. Il bilancio da 19 Maggio aggiunge. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. I prezzi del greggio è sceso di nuovo la scorsa settimana, un fatto nascosto dalla impennata dei prezzi azionari di energia. Anche se i futures del petrolio greggio è sceso di oltre il 5, e si è concluso la settimana a 42,50 al barile, il Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) saltato 3.5. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il SampP 500 ha perso 1.2 la settimana scorsa e il Dow Jones Industrial Average è sceso 1,6, ma quello non racconta tutta la storia. Nascosto dietro queste medie sono stati una manciata di segmenti in grado di pubblicare i guadagni, e una piuttosto grande contingente di industrie. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il mercato azionario greco ripreso commercio di oggi dopo essere stato arrestato nelle ultime cinque settimane, e le scorte si registra un calo a 23 campana di apertura. Durante tutto questo periodo di cinque settimane, è stato ancora possibile comprare e vendere esposizione ai titoli greci. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Ouch Il SampP 500 ha perso 2,1 la settimana scorsa, e il Dow Jones Industrial Average è sceso 2.8. Questi sono numeri spiacevoli per gli stock chi ne possiede uno, ma come al solito, non raccontano tutta la storia. Non era il risultato di un giorno. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. L'indice composito Nasdaq ha chiuso a un nuovo massimo storico il Venerdì, chiudendo la settimana a 5.210. Si può ricordare che è stato appena tre mesi fa, l'indice, infine, ha superato il suo precedente chiusura alto stabilito di nuovo il 10 marzo 2000. Anche se. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Un'altra settimana e un altro termine greco. Negli ultimi anni pochi, le scadenze e le minacce per quanto riguarda la Grecia sono stati per lo più priva di significato. Grecia ha subito ripercussioni per la mancanza scadenze e ignorando le minacce. Mi ricorda un genitore apatico cercando di disciplinare una. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Avete sentito parlare della possibilità di un Grexit per anni. Ora sembra il momento è arrivato. Durante il fine settimana, gli elettori in Grecia stragrande maggioranza hanno votato no in un referendum volto a determinare se il paese dovrebbe accettare l'ultima austerità. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Ebbene, lo hanno fatto. I greci chiuso le loro banche, chiuso il loro mercato azionario, ha imposto controlli valutari, prelievi bancomat limitate a 60 euro, e ha imposto altri controlli sui capitali. Il grafico della performance di 1 settimana mostra che le scorte dell'Unione monetaria europea sono stati i migliori risultati. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. La Grecia è stata una partita un gioco pericoloso di rischio calcolato per quanto riguarda i pagamenti del debito, la domanda di alleviare dei termini di salvataggio, possibile fallimento, e abbandonando la moneta Euro. Di conseguenza, il rendimento dei suoi titoli di Stato a due anni era in esecuzione alto come 28. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Gran parte dell'azione mercati selvaggio sembra essere che si svolgono in luoghi internazionali di quest'anno. Ho scritto prima circa la sottoclasse di azioni cinesi conosciuti come A-azioni, e la corsa razzo che sono stati in questo anno. La settimana scorsa è stato. Utilità, spesso considerato il settore più sicuro e conservatore, si sono colpiti per una perdita di 4.1 la settimana scorsa. Non c'è nulla di sicuro, conservatore o difensiva a tale proposito. L'indice Russell 2000 di piccola capitalizzazione, spesso considerato come un barometro di aggressività degli investitori, ha superato il Dow 30 del 2,1 scorsa settimana. Niente conservatore su questo, neanche. stock cinesi sono stati in una lacrima verso l'alto gran parte di quest'anno. Il rally ha accelerato ai primi di aprile con SPDR SP Cina (GXC) saltando 14,9 più alto per il mese. Dopo un grande anticipo di questo tipo, gli investitori dovrebbero aspettarsi un po 'di dare e avere, come i prezzi si adeguano alla nuova altitudine. Chiamatela consolidamento, digerire guadagni, supporto e riempimento, o qualsiasi altra cosa la terminologia che preferite, resta il fatto che la volatilità a breve termine è parte di questo processo. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Gran parte delle notizie finanziarie durante il fine settimana e questa mattina presto concentrata sul potenziale acquisizione di Time Warner Cable (TWC) da Charter Communications (CHTR). Anche se queste due aziende potrebbero essere nomi familiari, che non sono poi così grandi in. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Il Territorio britannico dell'Oceano Indiano (BIOT) è un piccolo gruppo di isole nel mezzo dell'Oceano Indiano. Situato a circa metà strada tra l'Africa e Singapore, è quanto di più vicino al centro del nulla che una persona può ottenere. Il . Come abbiamo suggerito la scorsa settimana, la rotazione attuale del mercato non è unfurling senza problemi grazie alle sue dimensioni massicce e improvviso. La scorsa settimana, molti segmenti spostati in una direzione opposta dei precedenti due settimane. Finora, questo sembra essere supporto normale e riempimento al contrario di una falsa partenza per i nuovi leader emergenti. Una eccezione è stata settore dei materiali, che ha continuato a scalare la classifica. Si prega di consultare in formato PDF per la classifica, aziende e dati sulle prestazioni. Le piccole increspature di attività rotazione settoriale che abbiamo notato il mese scorso sono diventati enormi onde la scorsa settimana. L'ex leader della Sanità, Beni di consumo ciclici, e Small Cap Growth tutto ha preso una battitura. Simultaneously, the former laggards of Energy, Materials, and Mega-Cap stocks . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. The NASDAQ finally did it. The Dow and the SampP 500 both did it eight years ago. The Russell 2000 did it eleven years ago. The it we are talking about is recovering from the Tech crash of 2000 2002. Making . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. The financial media did their best to make Fridays market decline seem much worse than it was. It would appear they were trying to scare investors. Television headline banners had market plunge in bold ribbons across the screen, and the shows producers . Chinas heyday of double-digit growth is not likely to return anytime soon, but perhaps investors are starting to realize that 6 or 7 growth is pretty darn good. During the final quarter of 2014, job growth averaged 324,000 per month. For the first quarter of 2015 that figure plunged to just 197,000 per montha 39 decline. Economists are left wondering if this is an anomaly or a sign the economy is weakening. Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Do you think stocks are expensive, cheap, or fairly valued at this time It seems many companies believe there are bargains available in todays market. Last week we mentioned the announcement by H. J. Heinz, a privately held company, to take over Kraft . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. In the days and weeks leading up to last weeks FOMC meeting, it seems the market feared the prospect of a June interest rate hike. The market was fixated on the prospect of the word patient being removed from the post-meeting statement . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Webster defines hedge as something that provides protection or defense. Hedge funds became popular in the 1990s, although many market observers believe the name is misleading because many (perhaps most) do not hedge. Instead, hedge funds are known for taking large, often . February employment reports released before the market opened Friday. Markets focused on the positive aspects of the reports, which unfortunately resulted in a negative reaction. The reason for this is the belief the Fed now has the data it needs to start raising interest rates sooner rather than later. The fear of higher rates sparked selloffs in bonds, stocks and commodities alike. The higher yields available in the U. S. should attract more foreign capital, and the dollar surged in value. Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Last week, the Federal Communications Commission voted to regulate broadband internet as a utility. Its called net neutrality, and the name itself sounds like a reasonable goal. However, the actual regulations the FCC voted to approve remain a secret. It seems the . Last week, Wal-Mart Stores announced it would increase the minimum hourly wage for 500,000 of its employees to 9 in the next couple months. While workers will enjoy that raise soon, they can also look forward to another bump to at least 10 an hour by February 2016. Even though the big box store is the countrys largest private employer, the move wont have that big of a direct impact on the dollars available for consumers to spend. Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Many of the largest upside movers in the ETF world last week were associated with either PIIGS or Russia. PIIGS, as you probably recall, is the acronym given to the countries of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain. These five nations were . This past week, the level of divergence was much larger than usual. From a sector perspective, there was a difference of 9.5 between the 6.1 gain of energy and the 3.4 drop of utilities. Removing the strongest and weakest still results in a 7.8 spread between the 6.1 jump of telecom and the 1.6 retreat of real estate. Commodities as a whole rose 3.6 on the week, while gold prices plunged 3.8. Some single-commodity funds posted even larger gains, such as the 11.2 surge of iPath SP GSCI Crude Oil ETN, creating even larger divergences. A secondary effect of quantitative easing programs is that they tend to weaken the host countrys currency, providing it with a competitive advantage. Any advantage the U. S. had in this regard started disappearing in mid-2014 when the end of U. S. quantitative easing was in sight. The weak-currency advantage now belongs to Europe. The European Central Bank has been wanting to get in on the QE action for quite some time, but there has been stiff opposition to stepping off that cliff. Arguments against the move are both legal and political. Despite the opposition, on January 22, the ECBs Governing Council revealed its plan to purchase about 1.1 trillion euros (1.3 trillion) in government bonds as part of an asset-purchase program. The purchases will amount to 60 billion euros (70 billion) a month through September 2016. In the world of currency trading, value changes of 2 in a week often receive the big move label. As such, plain vanilla currency trading might be boring. To make things interesting, traders typically employ large amounts of leverage in the currency markets, and we do mean large. With stocks, investors are typically limited to 2x leverage. There are ETFs that employ 3x leverage, but they typically reset on a daily basis to avoid total ruin. Last Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its final employment reports for 2014. As always, the figures are likely to be adjusted in coming months, but until that time the year-end figures are now in the books. The headline numbers tell a positive story of 252,000 new jobs being added in December and the unemployment rate dropping two ticks to 5.6. The words behind the headlines claim 2014 was the best year for hiring since 1999, with an average of 246,000 jobs added each month. The 5.6 unemployment rate is the lowest since 2008. Crude oil at a multi-year low, the dollar at a multi-year high, interest rates near historic lows, commodities declining, and stocks meandering higher. These were the trends and market conditions prevalent at the end of 2014. Today, the calendar reads 2015. Investors are curious as to whether or not these trends will continue. Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. If you thought the price of crude oil was dropping fast, then take a look at natural gas. The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) plunged 12.5 last week, and the trading week was only three-and-a-half days long. It is down 17.4 . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. The years final FOMC meeting concluded last Wednesday. Prior to the meeting, many analysts and Fed watchers were speculating as to whether or not the Fed would remove for a considerable period from its statement. Indeed, the Fed did eliminate the phrase . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Its hard to believe, but there are two camps on the subject of low energy prices. I will make my bias clear right up front by stating I am firmly in the low energy prices are good for the economy camp. As . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. Despite our Energy benchmark rising 0.6, it is generally acknowledged that it was a tough week for nearly everything related to the Energy sector. Oil prices continued to fall for the week, and crude oil futures are lower still in todays early . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. A week ago, we outlined the dismal performance of commodities this year. Little did we know it was going to get much worse before getting any better. The Thanksgiving holiday shortened the trading week to only 23 hours instead of the usual . Please see PDF for rankings, holdings and performance data. A week ago, we lamented the dismal performance of commodities this year. Natural gas was among the worst, but then a blizzard hit North America sending freezing temperatures into nearly every state and dumping more than six feet of snow around Buffalo, . The performance of commodities in 2014 has been downright dreadful. Crude oil has been making headlines recently, as the former 100 commodity is now trading below 80. Among commodities, crude oils dismal performance may be the most visible, but it is far from being the only dramatic story. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its monthly employment reports on the first Friday of every month. For the past five years or more, they have easily been the most closely watched and highly anticipated monthly economic releases. Last Friday, the Bureau issued the October reports, but for some strange reason they didnt gather much attention. Markets appeared to be ready to settle down and digest their recent gains when out of the blue, Japan ignites the rallys afterburners. Japans central bank said it was prepared to pump huge amounts of new stimulus into its economy. Meanwhile, the countrys main government pension fund revealed its plan to bolster the economy and security prices. Supposedly, the two announcements were not a coordinated effort, but not everyone is convinced. A week ago, the one-week performance chart showed mixed results. The reason for this was the early part of the week consisted of large declines while the latter part contained the start of a bounce. Not all market segments began their rebounds in unison, and the magnitude of the declines were not symmetrical with the bounces. In the end, Pacific ex-Japan topped the chart with a 3.2 gain while Health Care was on the bottom, posting a 2.1 decline. Markets produced another wild and wooly ride for investors last week. Fear and panic ruled the action during the first part of the week, culminating in the Dow Jones Industrial Average registering a 460-point intraday plunge on Wednesday. At that time, the Dow was off more than 688 points for the week, economists feared Europe was headed for recession, and the American public was listening to a not-so-reassuring press conference from the CDC. Three months ago, we put the title Assessing The Damage on our weekly update. It followed a week of investor angst and scary media headlines. At that time, we concluded Bottom line, the broad stock market barometers held losses to less than 1 for the week and most bonds rose. Despite the steeper plunges in Europe, small cap stocks, and select industries, the bull market is still intact. This week, our conclusion is not as favorable. It is easy to be skeptical of government reports. For example, one of the most widely watched government data releases is the monthly employment situation report. Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics claimed its August figure was off by nearly 27. Seems there were 180,000 new jobs created instead of the 142,000 reported. However, we dont know for sure if this is the extent of the error, because in early November the Bureau will revise the August number again. An era is ending at Pimco. Bill Gross, a company founder and world-renowned bond trading guru, left the firm on Friday. His announcement took the market, and company executives, by surprise. Gross will be moving to Janus, whose stock took a 40 rocket ride on the news, although it is giving back some of that today. Pimco is part of the German firm Allianz, which headed down about 7. If you were looking forward to having a Scotland ETF in your portfolio soon, you will need to put your aspirations back on the shelf for the time being. Residents there voted against independence in a closely watched referendum last Thursday. Although the measure to dissolve the 307-year union was defeated, it doesnt necessarily put the kibosh on a Scotland ETF forever. The U. S. is losing the competitive devaluation war. Throughout history, youve probably heard various presidential administrations state that a strong U. S. dollar is in our countrys best interest or something very similar. Often times, this was accompanied by actions or policies seeking a contrary result, namely that of weakening the dollar. The debate on whether a strong dollar or weak dollar is better for the country depends on your point of view. The European Central Bank caught investors off-guard on Thursday when it cut its key lending interest rate from 0.15 to 0.05 and pushed its bank deposit rate deeper into negative territory (from -0.1 to -0.2). The ECB also unveiled additional stimulus measures including the purchase of asset-backed securities. Last week, the SP 500 poked its head above 2000 for the first time ever and even managed to hang on to close the week above that level. Friday being the last trading day of August means the venerable index also finished the month in record territory. Not too bad for a market and economy that cant seem to get any respect. Stock market results dont always correlate with investor expectations though. It is now September, and a new month always has the potential to change everything. If you have the financial news turned on this morning, then you are aware the SP 500 is trading above the 2,000 level for the first time in its history. Investors are often enamored with large round numbers, but this is only the second three-zero number the SP has encountered. A company that many investors indelibly link with master limited partnerships is exiting the MLP business. Heres perché. Some market categories produced nice gains last week. Unfortunately, many of the best winners were from groups that have been the weakest recently. We say unfortunately because this could imply last week was just a brief countertrend bounce instead of signaling the end of the downturn and the start of a new rally. A market fueled by Fed stimulus does not take kindly to the thought of that stimulus being taken away. For the week, the SP 500 was flat and had no daily moves greater than 0.5 in either direction. The calm and subtle action of this major average belies the wide swings taking place beneath the surface. From an investment perspective, Russia has been performing poorly. Not just last week but for the past three years. Stocks declined last week, but you might be pleasantly surprised to learn the losses were not as large as some financial media outlets want you to believe. Despite the shortcomings, failures, and accusations of fraud, the Department of Homeland Security awarded USIS a brand new 190 million dollar contract last week. The best thing we can say about first quarter GDP is that there will be no more revisions. The situation in Iraq seems to be getting worse every day and appears to be heading toward another full-scale war. Energy-related companies are benefiting from the strife. Dramatic headlines can throw some investors off their games. Dont panic and stick with solid investment strategies. It took a while. It took a long while. It took longer than any other recovery of the past 70 years, but U. S. payrolls finally reversed the downturn of the past six years. The U. S GDP shrank by 1 during the first quarter. Small cap stocks have been lagging their large cap brethren for the better part of the past nine weeks. Looking at todays one-week performance numbers paints a different picture. The run for India ETFs heated up with positive performances in the 8-9 range. The latest run came as the country elected Narendra Modi as Prime Minister and a parliament majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Small cap stocks have been taking a beating for a longer time than many would have imagined. However, its the magnitude of their relative underperformance that is the true concern. A 6.5 unemployment rate was the Federal Reserves line in the sand starting about 17 months ago. This was supposed to be the point where it would consider removing its extreme accommodation regarding interest rates. Earlier this year, with the unemployment rate hovering around 6.7, the Fed removed that line, stating the unemployment rate didnt fully reflect problems within the labor market. Stock performance diverged widely by both sector and geographic locale last week. Much like the weather this spring, stocks have been changing direction quite rapidly. Apparently not content with the recent acquisition of the Crimean Peninsula, Russian President Vladimir Putin is intensifying efforts to take over portions of eastern Ukraine. This month, the establishment survey claimed the economy achieved a major milestone with the 8.8 million jobs lost during the recession now replaced. This purported milestone is not a milestone at all. Heres perché. Recently much of the air came out of biotech, solar and homebuilder stocks. But dont count them out just yet. Political risk is no stranger to the biotech industry. Last weeks market action looked like a traditional flight to safety. Gold was up, bonds advanced, utility stocks rallied, and the VIX volatility index spiked, while the rest of the market faltered. The Labor Department released the February jobs report on Friday. Once again, it surprised economists this time to the upside. Headlines about Russia have shifted from Olympic metals to potential invasion. Its now been five years since the recession ended according to official statistics. Much like the consumer skepticism regarding how inflation is measured, millions of unemployed and underemployed citizens are struggling with the notion the recession has ended at all, let alone five years ago. With previously out-of-favor categories posting great short-term performance figures recently, it is natural to wonder if this is the start of a major shift in market strength or just a transient bounce. Selling dominated stock market activity early in the week before action turned positive on Thursday and Friday. Both days produced broad market gains of more than 1, which may not seem to be a grand accomplishment, but it might be better than you realize. In times of market trouble or uncertainty, various defensive groups often begin to display superior relative strength. Most of the time, this implies these groups tend to fall less than the broader market. Heres one group to pay careful attention to. Anyone thinking emerging market equities were a bargain at the beginning of the year has had a painful month. The seemingly effortless stock market gains of 2013 might not come so easily in 2014. Another month, another employment report, and another controversy. Heres the culprit. Stocks continued to climb into the close of 2013. Although many investors were itching to lock in profits, they held their positions a few days longer. Heres perché. Probabilities point to 2013 being a great year for domestic stocks, a mixed year for international stocks, and a down year for bonds and commodities. This weeks FOMC meeting, the last one of 2013, was long anticipated to be a non-event. Think again. Its generally believed the employment reports for October were built on transient and unreliable data as the partial government shutdown played havoc with the survey results. Therefore, it might be more instructive to look at the two-month changes of the November report in the hopes they filter out the temporary glitches. Stocks rallied after the Fed announced it will begin to taper its asset purchases in January. Heres perché. Retailing is big business, even within the fund world. For investors, post-Thanksgiving weekend sales analysis will be the first glimpse of which retailers are likely to succeed and which ones may flop this season. Eventually, stocks will have a pullback, a correction, and another bear market. In the meantime, the market is making fools of those prematurely declaring a top. The delayed employment report came out on Friday showing 204,000 new jobs in October. This number is significant by numerous measures. Here are four. Europe continues to set the pace for global markets, and stocks there appear to have completed a minor pullback. Heres how to play it. Many market segments are hitting new highs every week, or so it seems. Heres why that may not be the case. Congress reached a deal last week. Unfortunately, lawmakers did not really resolve much, choosing the easier course of just extending the deadlines instead. As little as a month ago, stocks and bonds shrugged off any concerns about the looming budget and debt limit deadlines. That no longer seems to be the case. The so-called government shutdown is nothing more than a sideshow. The real event is debt ceiling discussions. Last week, the Republican-controlled House voted in favor of a bill to extend government funding through mid-December. It had a catch though, as it included a one-year delay in the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare). As expected, the Democrat-controlled Senate rejected the House bill and produced their own plan to extend funding without any changes to ObamaCare. Do you remember the last debt ceiling discussions and the fiscal cliff Well, the debt ceiling discussions have returned, and the indications are that this round will be just as contemptuous as the last. This weeks FOMC meeting is probably deserving of the most highly anticipated FOMC meeting in years title that many analysts are bestowing on it. The reason, in case you are not aware, is because this is likely to be the first time in the history of the Federal Reserve that they will announce the commencement of tapering. Never before has the Fed been in a mode of making 85 billion monthly purchases of bonds. Therefore, it stands to reason, the Fed has never before had to cut back or eliminate those purchases. The unemployment rate improved again, dropping from 7.4 to 7.3. It sounds great, until you understand how the new number was derived. The prospect of another war sent stock prices down in every corner of the world last week. Last Thursday, the Nasdaq shut down for three hours in the middle of the trading day in what has been dubbed the Flash Freeze. During the trading halt, Nasdaq OMX (NDAQ) officials were conspicuous by their absence. They were giving the press little to no indication about the nature or extent of the problems. The market, as measured by the SP 500, is near an all-time high. The venerable benchmark closed Friday just 3.1 below the peak it established two weeks prior. Our one-week performance figures for various market segments show a market that is not moving synchronously. A massive 11.1 difference between the top and bottom performing groups makes it all too obvious. Removing the two extreme categories still reveals a huge 7.1 performance difference. It seems the worlds GDP is growing at a 3.44 annual rate, with 2.01 attributed to developed markets and 1.43 coming from emerging markets. This is the first time in about six years that the contribution from developed markets has been larger. The fact that emerging markets have lost their lead in growth contribution apparently comes as a shocker. A 0.2 percent reduction in the unemployment rate should be good news, but a closer look at the underlying data shows the headline number is misleading. Major market averages posted nearly flat-line results for the week, although there were day-to-day movements. The one-week performance chart shows more losing categories than winning ones, with most international equity categories coming out on the plus side thanks to help from a weak U. S. dollar. Disappointing earnings from tech heavyweights Google (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT) marred what was otherwise a good week for stocks. Downbeat earnings outlooks werent confined to the tech sector though, its just the others didnt interfere with the market rally. It was a good week for the markets. Every category in our one-week performance chart, except the U. S. dollar, posted a gain. Even gold, commodities, emerging markets, and bonds had positive returns. Once again, most of the upside action ties back to remarks by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. Bond prices fell immediately after the release of employment reports. Analysts and traders believe the employment gains were sufficient to keep the Fed on track for tapering its bond purchase program later this year. Consensus is now building for the Fed to begin reducing its purchases at its September 18 meeting. Members of the Federal Reserve were out in force last week, trying to calm investor fears. They did their best to convince market participants that the 85 billion in monthly bond purchases were still taking place and would likely continue for many more months. This hand-holding operation by the Fed was required due to negative market reactions after Chairman Bernanke spoke on May 22 and June 19. Seems that investors misunderstood the message the Fed actually wanted to convey. Prior to May 22, the consensus opinion regarding the Feds bond purchase program assumed buying would start scaling back late this year or early 2014 and end sometime in 2014. On May 22, Ben Bernanke spooked investors by suggesting the tapering process could begin as early as this month or next. After the FOMC meeting last Wednesday, the Fed reassured everyone the prior consensus was correct. Despite the global significance of the G-8 and other multi-country meetings this week, the outcome of the FOMC meeting is likely to be the most newsworthy to investors around the world. The Feds policy of keeping accommodative measures in place as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 does not face any foreseeable challenges. Last Friday, the jobs report showed the unemployment rate ticking up to the 7.6 level for May from 7.5 in April. The 175,000 new jobs number happens to be above the recent average and somewhat better than expected, but it is not enough for a healthy economic recovery. High yielding stocks have been one of the biggest beneficiaries of low bond yields the past few years. As bond and money market yields dropped to historically low levels, investors seeking income had to turn elsewhere. Dividend paying stocks seemed like a logical choice, although it is not entirely clear if investors truly understand the risk trade-offs. Japan grabbed the headlines last week after the Nikkei 225 plunged 7.3 in one day. Weak economic reports out of China presumably provided the catalyst for traders to take profits, but the selling intensified as the day progressed. Japanese stocks have been performing very well this year, and it would be easy to make the case they were overextended and vulnerable to a pullback. But I dont believe this marks the end of the bull market for Japan. Stocks continue to perform well, while bonds, commodities and precious metals paint a different picture. Once the yield for 10-year Treasury securities breaks below 2, there is not much more they can give. The latest yield decline ended abruptly on May 3, just north of 1.6. However, despite better yields from stocks, and forecasts for a massive rotation from bonds to stocks, 10-year Treasury yields have not climbed back above the 2 threshold. At the conclusion of the FOMC meeting early this month, the Fed said it plans to continue the bond purchases until the labor market improves substantially and the purchase amounts may increase or decrease to adjust for labor market or inflation changes. The new strategy map has neither a start date nor an ongoing timetable. Various reports take on different degrees of importance as the economic cycle progresses. The monthly jobs report, which the government releases on the first Friday of each month, appears to be the most anticipated at this stage of the cycle. If it seems like the jobs report has been the most important for a few years now, then you are not alone. Your mind is not playing tricks on you. Stocks, bonds, commodities, and even GDP bounced back last week. In typical bounce-back fashion, the weakest groups of recent months were among the biggest gainers last week. Additionally, many of this years leaders did not participate in the advance. Then again, since the leadership categories were already trading at new highs, there was no need or ability for them to bounce. Gold had another tough week, dropping 5.9 on top of its 5.7 loss of the previous week. Silver took an even bigger lump, plunging another 11.4. The weakness in precious metals spilled over to oil and broad based commodity funds as well. Not all commodities felt the pain however, as natural gas, coffee, and cocoa all posted impressive gains. April 13, 2013 Equity investors are having a good 2013, as long as they havent been concentrating their investments in emerging market equities. It is not clear they are enjoying the ride though, as consumer sentiment took a tumble, retail sales are not up to snuff, and investors are getting nervous . The first quarter of 2013 is now in the history books, although much of the analysis is still incomplete. Undoubtedly, youve heard about the new record highs for the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit new highs in early March, while the SP 500 finally did so on the last trading day of the month. That is if you ignore dividends, otherwise those records were broken months ago. This mornings headlines of Cyprus Bailout Approved sounds like good news at first, until you read the details. Cyprus became headline news today as European officials came up with a bailout plan for the country over the weekend. The proposed controversial plan involves taxing Cypriot bank deposits. Fridays employment report shows that more Americans are working and the unemployment rate fell from 7.9 to 7.7. These monthly reports contain a vast amount of data, and its always interesting to see some of the math behind the headline numbers. The closer the deadline for government sequestration got, the more investors seemed to ignore it. Some government officials tried to create panic, claiming it would cause wide spread devastation and destruction. However, many investors remain skeptical of these claims. The G-20 developed and emerging market economies doesnt want you to call the competitive devaluations taking place a currency war. The G-20 met in Moscow over the weekend, but the outcome remains almost as controversial as the topic. There were just four trading days last week. For the SP 500, it began and ended on positive notes, but the two negative days sandwiched in between were the dominate force. As a result, the SPs weekly winning streak failed to extend itself to seven weeks. If you were listening to the pundits instead of looking at the actual numbers, you may be surprised to learn the actual decline for the SP 500 was a mere 0.3 for the week, less than its average intraday volatility. So yes, the market uptrend is still intact. January is now behind us, and it turned out to be a very good month for investors. Stocks maintained a steady climb, making it very easy to enjoy the ride. It will be difficult for February to repeat that performance, but we will welcome the attempt. Stocks of the European Monetary Union led all categories last week with some help from an appreciating euro. Domestic consumer discretionary was also strong as retailers and homebuilders contributed to upside action. Energy and industrials top the one-week performance chart today. Both sectors carry an economic cyclical classification, so it is encouraging to see them at the top of the list. Their strength suggests the economy is picking up steam, which could help sustain the market rally. The second week of trading for 2013 wasnt nearly as exciting as the first. However, most markets managed to post gains. Given the sharp run-up that occurred in the first week, I guess we should be thankful there wasnt a pullback. Stocks rallied strongly, posting spectacular gains in a four-day week shortened by the New Year holiday. The last minute bill to avert the Fiscal Cliff gets most of the credit, even though not much was actually accomplished. Elected officials extended tax cuts for individuals making less than 400,000 and bought a little time by pushing the deadline on spending cuts out another two months. 169 2017 Forbes Newsletter Group. Tutti i diritti riservati. Use, duplication, or sale of this service, or data contained herein, is strictly prohibited. Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Forbes Forbes MagazineCriticizing the All Weather Portfolio Editor8217s Note: This is a guest post from Kathryn Cicoletti, Founder of Makin8217SenseBabe, LLC, where she tries to make learning money topics a more enjoyable experience. Prior to this endeavor, she spent 10 years working with an asset management firm evaluating hedge funds for possible investment. Her new company sells subscriptions (12 a month) to investment tools, a monthly newsletter, and email access to her. The videos on the site (free to you) are a pretty fun way to learn a lot of good stuff about personal finance and investing. This post was very different from most of the guest posts I see, and the initial draft came across as a damning indictment of a portfolio and its promoters. I could tell she was pretty fired up, so I figured the portfolio was investing in whole life insurance and loaded mutual funds or something. It wasn8217t, but the post is still pretty fun, and it will introduce the concept of a 8220risk parity8221 portfolio to many readers, so I8217m going to run it. Kathryn and I have no financial relationship. The job of a good graphic designer is to fill the gap between information and understanding. I didnt come up with that myself. I stole that line from a movie I just watched called Design is One. The movie is about Italian designers Lella and Massimo Vignelli, who developed the American Airlines logo and the signage for the New York City subways. In the financial world theres a huge gap between information and understanding that information. Bridging the gap between financial information and understanding it is not fun because you have to type more words to explain things, which I have just done. But the pain of typing too many words isnt the real issue with bridging this gap. The real issue is most people who write financial articles are: Afraid that if they explain things in laymans terms, they look less sophisticated than their high-finance peers, and Out of touch with how few people, on their own, can bridge the gap between financial information and understanding because they dont work in the financial world. The latest culprit is Tony Robbins. He has a new book out, called MONEY Master the Game: 7 Simple Steps to Financial Freedom. I first read about this on Meb Fabers blog back in October. A few days later I listened to Tim Ferriss interview Tony Robbins. Ferris and Robbins talk about Robbinss in-depth conversations with some of the largest money managers in the world. Ray Dalio Founder of Bridgewater, the largest hedge fund on the planet says Robbins while talking to Ferriss. I knew we were in trouble when he started talking about hedge fund managers and planets in the same sentence. Here we go, I thought. And we went. The All Weather Portfolio Explained Robbins explained that the All Weather Portfolio starts with Dalios idea that there are really only four things that move asset prices: inflation, deflation, rising economic growth, and declining economic growth. Robbins then explains that he learned from Dalio that there are four possible economic seasons that will impact asset prices: Higher than expected inflation Lower than expected inflation (or even deflation) Higher than expected economic growth, and Lower than expected economic growth The idea of a 8220risk parity portfolio8221 is that you should have 25 of your risk spread out between each of these economic environments, or seasons. Per Robbins, the key thing to pay attention to is risk, rather than dollar amount. Robbins says that since stocks can be roughly 2X riskier than bonds, his risk-based asset allocation (i. e. The All Weather Portfolio) places roughly twice as much money in bonds as in stocks. The quantification of this is interesting, since it doesn8217t define the risk being discussed. For example, if the risk you8217re discussing is the risk of your portfolio not keeping up with inflation, short term treasury bonds and money market funds have lots of risk. But if your definition of risk is short-term volatility, or dispersion of possible returns, then obviously stocks have a lot more risk than bonds, probably more than 2X - ed So taking into consideration risk, Dalio told Robbins that the All Weather Portfolio looks like this: Not The Permanent Portfolio In some ways, The All Weather Portfolio concept is similar to The Permanent Portfolio that started back in the 80s. The Permanent Portfolio suggests 25 allocations split between four different asset classes. Specifically: 25 in U. S. stocks 25 in long-term U. S. Treasury Bonds 25 in cash 25 in precious metals (gold) The two biggest differences between these two portfolios are: The original Permanent Portfolio includes a higher allocation to cash and metals like gold (zero and 15 respectively for the All Weather Portfolio). While the current allocations to The Permanent Portfolio are slightly different than this 25252525 split, The Permanent Portfolio does not use a risk based asset allocation strategy. Meaning, they divide up the assets evenly without taking into consideration that gold is much more volatile than bonds and should potentially have a lower allocation not to mention the likelihood of each of the three scenarios - inflation, deflation and 8220tight money8221- it is designed to address are different.-ed Issues with Robbins as a 8220Graphic Designer8221 The most concerning part of this interview was when Robbins tries to be the graphic designer (fill the gap between information and understanding) and help us understand what that portfolio means: In laymans terms, youre protected, he says. When I saw these words: youre protected, my heartburn started to flare up. Playing on peoples fears and positioning this portfolio as if its their saving grace is just wrong. There is not a single strategy, including hiding your money under your mattress, that you can use to tell investors youre protected. This is a broad-brush statement that Robbins uses for The All Weather Portfolio that just isnt true. But rather than rant on about all the ridiculous statements Robbins made about this All Weather Strategy, I will walk you through the important points you need to know if youre thinking of implementing this investment strategy with your money. I listed Robbinss and Dalios key points from their conversation and then, wearing one or more of the following three hats, explain the issue with the point: Explainer I am the Italian graphic designer in this case, building a bridge with the information Robbins gives you so you can understand what hes saying. Endorse RobbinsDalio has a good point. Kindly calling BS This part of the strategy doesnt make sense i. e. be careful. All of these quotes are from this article and Ferrisss podcast interview with Robbins. Claim: The Backtested Portfolio had Fewer Down Years Than the SampP 500 (Dalios) Pure Alpha Fund, according to Barrons, has lost money only 3 times in 20 years, and in 2010 he produced 40 returns for his key clients. Endorse the SampP has lost money 4 times in the last 20 years through 2013. One point for DalioRobbins. Write that down because I think its the only one. Claim: Every Investment Has A Season, so Put 55 of your Money Into Bonds Tony, when looking back through history, there is one thing we can see with absolute certainty: every investment has an ideal environment in which it flourishes. In other words, theres a season for everything. Explainer 8211 Remember if you own a bond that just means you gave out a loan to, say, to a company or a government. They pay you interest in return. If its a 10-year bond, they pay you interest for 10 years, then you get back the money you loaned them. If you own a bond and youre receiving 5 in interest per year and the company now only pays 3 in interest per year to whoever gives them a loan (buys a new bond), your bond is more valuable because it pays higher interest. This is why when interest rates decline, exisiting bonds increase in value. Kindly calling BS This is the most hysterical part of this whole thing. Dalio lets the cat out of the bag but Robbins ignores it. The All Weather Portfolio suggests a 55 allocation to bonds. With interest rates steadily declining, we have been in a bull market for bonds for the last 30 years. So when Dailio says every investment has an ideal environment, we have been in an ideal environment for bonds which is 55 of the portfolio He serves it up for us, but Robbins missed this. A 55 allocation to bonds AFTER interest rates have been declining for the last 30 years, giving bonds a huge tailwind, is not an all weather allocation. Thats a one-season allocation that needs a new (lower) allocation to reflect where we are in the interest rate cycle. Claim: You Can Make Up For The Lower Returns of Bonds By Using Long Term Bonds I quickly remembered (why there is such a large percentage in bonds) its about balancing risk, not the dollar amounts. And by going out to longer-term (duration) bonds this allocation will bring a potential for higher returns. Explainer 8211 the longer the time frame you loan out your money (say 30 years instead of 5 years), the higher the interest rate you will receive. This is because you have to be compensated for having your money tied up for a longer period of time. Unfortunately, when interest rates rise, all bonds lose value immediately, but long term bonds lose far more than short term bonds. Kindly calling BS Where are my Tums Again, they are completely disregarding interest rate risk because this has not shown up over the last thirty-years. These allocations are looking at what has worked over the last thirty-years, i. e. driving while looking in the rear view mirror. Call me at 1-800- KathrynsBackTestRUs and I can put together a great historical track record allocating 55 of my money to an asset class that was a shoe-in over the last thirty years. To be fair, while bonds have had a heck of a run over the last 30 years, despite the falling interest rate 8220tailwind,8221 they were outperformed by stocks and real estate over that time period.-ed Claim: Commodities and Gold Protect Against Inflation He rounded out the portfolio with 7.5 in gold and 7.5 in commodities. You need to have a piece of that portfolio that will do well with accelerated inflation so you would want a percentage in gold and commodities. These have high volatility. Because there are environments where rapid inflation can hurt both stocks and bonds. Explainer Robbins is trying to say that gold and commodities have a low correlation to stocks and bonds in an inflationary environment. Endorse but Still Kindly calling BS two points: 1) Theyre suggesting you put 15 of your portfolio in an asset class that is going to make money in an environment that were nowhere close to experiencing. The Fed is targeting inflation near 2.5. Meaning, they would like prices to be rising 2.5 year-over-year. This is their sweet spot for where they think inflation needs to be in order to feel ok about the economy and unemployment. If prices are going down (deflation), thats bad because it means demand is low, and thats not good for the economy. Look at that chart. We are nowhere near an inflationary environment. 2). His last sentence doesnt even make sense: These have high volatility. Because there are environments where rapid inflation can hurt both stocks and bonds. Commodities have high volatility because they have huge swings in performance (up or down) at any given moment regardless of if were in an inflationary environment or not. If there are concerns over liquidity in the market and you just want your cash back fast, gold can sell-off when stocks sell-off, regardless of anything to do with inflation. Commodities having large swings in performance (aka volatility) is not dependent on rapid inflation. What is he talking about. My best guess is he meant to say this: 8220Gold and commodities do have high volatility8230But8230 there are environments where rapid inflation can hurt both stocks and bonds.-ed Ok I will end with this because this is already too long. Claim: You Should Use Back-tested Data to Design Your Portfolio Robbins: When my own investment team showed me the back-tested performance numbers of this All Seasons portfolio I was astonished. I will never forget it. Kindly calling BS: I think you should. I am very familiar with back-tested performance. In fact, I raised a lot of money using back-tested performance. Most institutional investors understand the meaning of back-testing, and that past performance is no indicator of future performance. I know because I was raked over the coals in many board meetings by trustees for using a back-tested track record. Institutional and other sophisticated investors understand the limitations of back-testing and will murder you for it in the boardroom when youre pitching to them. If they do decide to invest in a strategy that doesnt have a current track record and all they have to go on is back-tested numbers, they know it. However, retail investors, such as those who will buy Tony Robbinss book, typically do not understand the limitations of back-tested track-records. Why would you You dont have a board, you dont have an investment staff, you dont have a CIO, you dont have an investment consult telling you this. Although most doctors get this intuitively, due to their courses in evidence-based medicine where retrospective studies are readily shown to be inferior to prospective studies. - ed Sure you have a financial advisor but most of the time they just want you to buy this fund or that fund and could care less if there is no real track record. I hope you don8217t have an 8220advisor8221 like this. Please fire him if you do.-ed Ray Dalio deals with large institutional investors. Those are the biggest clients. They will ask the above questions. The retail community is going to get slammed if they rely only on this back-tested track record to make their investment decisions. While this post might look like I have a thing against Tony Robbins, I dont at all. The guy has a gift for making people feel better and he happens to make a ton of money doing it. Good for him. I have watched a lot of his videos and could be convinced to slit my feet and then go run a marathon if he told me too. But that is why we need to be so careful with this new book of his. Robbins is a force. And he is very convincing. So just do your research, bridge the gap with all this information and be your own designer to make sure you understand all of it before blindly buying into this all weather strategy. Editor8217s Note: Wasn8217t that fun I8217ve written before about dozens and dozens of reasonable portfolios. There is no such thing as Portfolio Nirvana. Couple any reasonable portfolio with an adequate savings rate and sufficient discipline to stick with it and you are likely to reach your goals. My big beef with very conservative portfolios such as The All Weather Portfolio are that the expected returns are so low. Commodities and precious metals have long-term expected returns close to the rate of inflation (minus expenses.) At current interest rates, bonds have expected real returns of -1.5 to 1.5. Having 70 of the portfolio in assets that aren8217t provided any significant growth after inflation means that you will have to compose nearly the entire portfolio of brute savings, a feat that is out of reach for all but the most frugal savers. However, if you8217ve already got all the money you need andor can8217t stand to lose money in more volatile investments like stocks and real estate, then this type of portfolio might be for you. Some of Kathryn8217s criticisms could be interpreted as advocating timing the market (i. e. interest rates must go up so you shouldn8217t invest so much in bonds.) Unlike Kathryn, and I suppose a bit like Robbins, I actually like the idea of a static asset allocation that doesn8217t change based on market predictions, interest rates, or valuations, even if I8217m not a huge fan of this particular static allocation, at least for an investor in the accumulation phase. What do you think Do you read or listen to Robbins What do you think Do you invest in the All Weather Portfolio Why or why not Comment below Subscribe to our blog RSS feed Sign-up for the regular blog posts via the RSSemail feed. Every post published will show up in your email box or favorite RSS reader. Keep in mind this is different from the monthly newsletter . so if you want both, sign-up for both. Brian February 18, 2016 at 9:53 am Great article, this is sage advice. The truth is, most people can8217t handle the volatility inherent in equities which is a product of natural human behavior. We are inherently risk averse. If you have 30 year investing horizon, it8217s hard to beat sticking your money in an indexed stock ETF and letting time work it8217s magic. Portfolios like the All Seasons and others are good for those who might need to withdraw sooner, and can8217t risk losing 40 in a year. I think the All Seasons portfolio misses out on some notable asset classes however. Check out my sample portfolio at buildingthebank Great review of Robbins8217 popular book. Ive always believed that allocating to assets that arent in their ideal environment just for the sake of All Weather diversification is waaay too much drag on performance. I wonder if Dr. Dahle or Kathryn have read the other popular book of the year that one of my friends helped put together called Dual Momentum Investing where they discuss how to be 100 in stocks during bull markets (either SampP500 ETF or All World ex US ETF depending on which is doing better) and 100 in bonds during recessions. 17 CAGR with 22 worst drawdown over last 40 years using only one parameter and 3 ETFs. Problem is its simple, non-predictive, passive, low-cost, and super boring, so most wont bother with the strategybut its what Ive been doing for years in my retirement accounts. That, blended with my commodityfutures trading strategy (0.0001 correlation), is my 8220All Sunny8221 portfolio skeptic December 31, 2014 at 7:18 am Donald, please let me borrow that crystal ball once you8217re super rich using your strategy and don8217t need it anymore. how can you possibly know when to get in and get out of bullbear markets Its not much of a crystal ball. No one knows, or can predict, when or how long bull or bear markets last. But what is possible is to recognize them while they are occurring and be positioned according. Systems like these are reactionary, not predictive. Its really not that complicated. I was just saying that the Dual Momentum Investing book does a nice job of explaining how to do it. But you dont have to take my word for it if you dont want maybe just read the reviews of it on amazon, or better yet, read the book and see if you still think the same way. Perhaps you can8217t see this, but to say you are 8220in a bull market8221 by its very nature predicts what is going to happen tomorrow. It8217s easy to say what has happened in the past, but to define the current investing environment requires not only a knowledge of the recent past, but also the near future. Very difficult to do. My crystal ball always seems to be very cloudy with regards to the near future. If yours is not, it might be fun to start publishing your near future predictions here and see how good they are. We could start with something simple, like whether the US stock market is going to be up or down a month from now. 8220Reactionary not predictive8221 means trend following, and the issue with trend following is that you are in for the beginning of the bear and out for the beginning of the bull, plus you may be incurring lots of investment expenses and transaction costs with each change. Not to mention the value of your time while following all these trends. It8217s hardly new and hardly the long searched for Holy Grail of investing. Jim, I see the confusion and am frustrated I can8217t explain it better. And saying 8220just read the book8221 doesn8217t offer much help either even though I just know you8217d like it since it8217s based on the same pillars of low cost, passive, non-predictive, simple, but it does acknowledge the irrefutable evidence that the biggest market anomaly out there in momentum. IOt has existed for millenia and will continue to so long as human nature is present. Antonacci8217s Dual Momentum strategy takes one minute per month, on the first of each month, averages 1-2 trades per year, and switches only between 3 ETFs. 17 CAGR for past 40 years, with less than half the downside of the SampP500. That8217s hard data, after transaction costs that anyone could have achieved if they had 20 minutes per year to run it. It8217s long stocks in bull markets, and long bonds during bear markets. I8217m happy to post the monthly performance of it moving forward and the 8220prediction8221 even though it8217s more of a trend ride than a prediction. For example, as of Jan 1st 2015, the portfolio would continue to be 100 in the SampP500. Because it8217s a bull market. We8217ll re-convene on Feb 1st. Here is the last 40 years of monthly data compared to the US World Stock index: optimalmomentumtrackrecord3.html Okay. Who was doing this for the last 40 years Nobody 8220Could have achieved.8221 Hmmm8230.smells backtested to me. I8217m not sure why this concept is hard for you to get, but backtested data suffers from the fact that the future may not resemble the past. You can backtest all kinds of stuff that works great, but the vast majority of it falls apart going forward. You cannot put 100 reliance in back-tested data. Doing one prediction a month is going to take too long to demonstrate your crystal ball (even using trends) is just as cloudy as the rest of ours. How about posting what 20 asset classes are going to do on Friday, next week, and next month (both direction and magnitude - or at least relative magnitude) That8217s 120 predictions. We8217ll see how many you got right. Not confident enough in your strategy to do that I8217m not surprised. I don8217t know anyone who is. I understand how these systems work. I just don8217t believe they8217re the best way to invest. If you do, nobody is stopping you. Here8217s a good article explaining the issues with trend-following momentum strategies: Casey February 10, 2016 at 3:00 pm I couldn8217t agree more with you on past performance doesn8217t guarantee future results. What I find interesting, is that everyone and there mom wants to judge and criticize the allocation that was based off the knowledge of one of the greatest investors ever in history of the world. However, if anyone has actually read the book Ray Dalio and Tony Robbins both clearly state this point, that it isn8217t always going to produce gains. It will lose some of the time. It was back tested over the past 75 years and compared to the performance of the S amp P 500 over the past 75 years NOT 30 years as claimed in this article. It is geared towards the long term8230. over 30 years or more, NOT 1, 2 or even 10 years. It is for retirement not a day trading account. Maybe it works or maybe it doesn8217t8230 only time will tell. Isn8217t that why they specifically tell you in the book that you will want to rebalance the portfolio every year Isn8217t that what rebalancing asset allocation is for So if you lose money hand over fist in one asset you can make up for it in another asset and also take advantage of dollar cost averaging on assets that go down in price Anyone disagree on that I agree that8217s a pretty big claim Donald. The book was published less than eight weeks ago. Let8217s evaluate the strategy going forward from there before we declare it is the Holy Grail investors have been searching for for the last few millenia. I assure you there are plenty of investors who are perfectly okay with simple and boring. A successful market timer should be very rich, very quickly. Casey February 10, 2016 at 3:07 pm Timing markets works but not over long haul. Trust me I know from experience. I had a 92 win rate day trading volatility over a period of 10 months last year. I was winning almost every time I made a trade timing the markets and eventually I lost and when I did lose, I lost big. I Didn8217t lose everything because I had an exit strategy and I know something about technical and fundamental analysis but the point is this8230 even the best traders on earth lose trades timing the markets. Simple and boring in my humble opinion is a much better way to build wealth without losing a whole lot of your nest egg. BTW, I am pretty sure that anyone that buys into the obvious logic and brilliance of the Dual Momentum Investing Strategy combined with commodityfutures trading that is benefiting so many of the Forbes 400 will not be deterred by my comments I dont wish for this to get off point. My main critique with All-Weather portfolios such as Dalios is that static allocations create massive performance drag. You just dont need bonds all of the time. It hurt the last few years. Emerging markets, gold, energy are not always needed either, and the last few years should help clarify that picture, for they were massive drags as well. Stocks (specifically just the SampP) has been the place to be. That will change at some point. The main argument is that if you truly want superior risk-adjusted returns, a dynamic allocation methodology could provide this, for it by design utilizes whatever assets that are working at the most appropriate times. It gives the best of both worlds while reducing the performance drag that comes from a permanent allocation to some assets. My blending the above Dual Momentum strategy with a futures strategy is a personal choice since I think adding my futures strategy is a nice diversifier because of it8217s non-correlation. Unfortunately, due to cognitive dissonance and anchoring bias, it may take the next bear market in bonds for investors to finally give up the notion that holding a substantial amount of bonds in their portfolio is the prudent thing to do. This case can be made for stocks, gold, whatever. My mention of the Dual Momentum book is simply a way to give an example of one such dynamic allocation system that can be employed by anyone and everyone. The author has decades of investment professional experience and is widely recognized as a foremost authority on momentum and dynamic models. The cool thing is no one needs to believe it. It wont affect how I manage assets, but it may turn a light bulb on in someone elses head, and if thats the case, then awesome Why do you need non-correlating asset classes when your plan is to just be in the best asset class all the time by trend following I8217m having a hard time reconciling those two strategies. Either you need non-correlated assets, or you can be in the best asset class all the time. Which is it Good question. It8217s actually both. The goal is to be in the most uncorrelated assets that currently exhibit momentum. It just increases return while also smoothing the ride. For example, I8217ve been long SampP500 with Dual Momentum for last several years, but short crude, long US Dollars, short gold (among other trending futures) in my futures program for the last few quarters. All of the above positions exhibit momentum, which by definition means price change (ie no point in being in anything that8217s not moving), and then when you combine uncorrelated assets, time frames, and strategies you end up with a pretty sweet equity curve Dr Khan December 31, 2014 at 6:01 pm But is not this dual momentum kind of like performance chasing For eg, for 2014 Biotechnology, Healthcare and REITS and airlines did amazing in 2014. Doesnt mean they will do great in 2015. Similarly before them energy, and commodities during the crash, and even gold one year did amazing. Wouldnt performance chasing be like buying high and selling now. While there is some persistence in returns (i. e. momentum) over the longer term there is a reversion to the mean phenomenon. Donald8217s advocated trend following scheme is that as an asset class starts to go down, you get out of it, getting back in when it starts to go up. If you8217ve invested into a trend-following portfolio recently, and then that asset class goes down in value, you will then have bought high and sold low. If the market 8220whipsaws8221 you can do that repeatedly, which is obviously going to hurt investment returns. It8217s not so much 8220performance chasing8221 as trying to figure out a methodology to use the anomaly of momentum to catapult you to greatly outsized gains. For example, think of this simple, robust, SampP-crushing equity system: 1. Throw darts to randomly pick 25 of IBD8217s top 100 momentum stocks at the beginning of the year (make sure they8217re uncorrelateddiversified though, very important). 2. Equally weight them. As one stocks hits a 60-day low, sell it, and re-allocate the proceeds equally to the remaining 24 stocks in the portfolio. 3. Repeat process ifwhen a stock hits a 60-day low. Cuts losers, presses winners. 4. At the end of the year, you8217ll be left with nothing but the best performing stocks, and in size. You8217ll look like a genius without predicting a thing, market timing, nor using any secret 8220indicator.8221 Pretty cool huh Moral of the story: prediction and market timing is impossible. However managing positions (ie cutting losers and riding winners) produces extremely outsized gains if done correctly the very existence of momentum in markets allows these strategies to work. Re-jigger the way you 8220think8221 about markets, and you may just be surprised with what comes of it8230again, you don8217t need to predict markets to significantly beat them. If that really works that well, shouldn8217t be hard for a mutual fund to do it and show incredible returns, no Where are they A few issues - first, what happens when all of the stocks hit their 60 day low in a market downturn8230.Also, your portfolio becomes less diversified as you go, exposing you to single company risk. 1). Unfortunately, it8217s just not worth the massive legal and compliance fees to start a fund that runs a strategy that takes 1 minday to run, and that anyone can just employ themselves plus hardly anyone would invest in it since the majority think like you and don8217t 8220believe it.8221 The guy who told me about this strategy (ridiculously successful top-ranked Wall St technical analyst and asset manager) always laughed and said he could never raise money with it bc his institutional clients thought it 8220too simple,8221 thus felt 8220can8217t possibly work.8221 Really interesting actually. You just can8217t start a fund for such strategies since managers can8217t qualify charging the fees for something so simple. The big money fees in asset management are achieved in blackbox, opaque, 8220magic sauce8221 strategies that require 1,000 PHDs from Harvard to run. But what8217s funny is that returns are more often perfectly inverse of complexity. It8217s too bad more people don8217t realize this. 2). When all stocks hit 60-day lows, portfolio goes to all cash until end of year. This means when it does have stocks (bull markets), it8217s in the highest returning stocks, and all cash during large recessions. I can email you a 30-yr track record of it you8217d like it8217s actually pretty ridiculous. But again, few do it because they want something more complex. 3). This is just a framework and an example how to start thinking differently. You can start with 100 stocks if you want less idiosyncratic risk, and when you get to 50, re-throw the darts to get a fresh 100. This will limit the company-specific risk. Or better yet, start with 500 (each equity from the SampP500), and run the system. You8217ll see exactly how and why it beats the index as it cuts the losers and presses winners. Or even better yet, include totally different asset classes, time frames, and add in the ability to short. My point is that the out-performance comes from a level of THINKING (ie all about management of positions, no predicting necessary, cut losers, ride winners, etc8230) that is very unconventional to classical thinking. At the end of the day, most people lose in markets, so if you want to win, by definition you need to do something different8230and if you study what the winners do, you8217ll see they all have commonalities. 4. That Dual Momentum book I mentioned earlier uses basically the same concept, but even simpler, with just 3 ETFs. All stocks (either SampP500 or All World Equity ETF) during bull markets, but when it breaks down, switches to all bonds. Keep checking back into Amazon every so often, and keep watching the 5 star reviews tick up like clock work8230some people are finally starting to grasp these simple but extremely powerful concepts. These strategies are simple, cheap, and effective, but it takes a willingness to buy into a way of thinking that is very contrary to what is taught in BSchool, investing books, or on CNBC. But remember, the individuals actually making money in markets don8217t write about it, teach it, or talk about it on CNBC8230and when they do, they get push back like I8217m getting which makes them less inclined to do so again But it8217s cool knowing at least some people will read these comments, put the time into reading, researching, and testing systems derived from these concepts and be pleasantly surprised at what they find 2.Oh, so there8217s more rules you didn8217t mention. Any others someone implementing this should know Good thing I didn8217t run out and start doing it yesterday as I thought that was all there was to it. You mean a back-tested 30 year track record Or do you have the records of someone who has actually been doing this for the last 30 years How did October 1987 treat them Sounds like they sold pretty low to me that month. 3. Oh, another rule. You sure this isn8217t complex enough for a hedge fund yet Most of the 8220market winners8221 I know (those with millions and plenty to retire on) follow a buy and hold strategy. 4. What do you mean it8217s different from what8217s taught in investing books It IS an investing book, no Its just a framework of how to think you just dont need All Weather or Risk Parity or diversification with losers just for the sake of diversification. It just creates massive performance lag. People can create whatever system or rules they want based on these simple concepts its better for them to read, research, test, and create themselves in order to build the confidence and discipline to actually believe it and stick to it, which is THE most important part. My point is that its not difficult, and people can do it themselves, but only if theyre willing to change their way of thinking. Im proofwhen I changed my way of thinking, I created a strategy that has compounded at 30yr for the past 7 years though bull, bear, and flat periods, without predicting a thing. I could retire now at 28 years old, but the mental game fascinates me. Plus I need something to do when my wife is pulling EM shifts or its raining out preventing me from fishing or golfing What if I were to tell you that, although we all know the average returns for stocks has been 7-8 over history, it would be 16-18 if you just removed the few generational crises over the past 100 years (ie Great Depression, 74, tech crash, 08 crisis) There are extremely simple strategies out there that get you into all cash (or bonds) during these rare events. Dual Momentum is the best book out there for people looking for something like this. Im just trying to help people cut through the BS books (like Tony Robbins) and get to ones that actually help. Forgive my skepticism - it has saved me hundreds of thousands thus far in my investing career. Might it cause me to miss out on some good opportunities from time to time Sure. But it has also saved me from many scams, 8220new and wonderful8221 investing techniques, and advisory fees. You run a fund that invests based on principles of momentum. I expect you to be fully sold on the concept. I see it as one more investing technique that may work just fine, but that I do not need to reach my goals. Many roads to Dublin and all that. 30 per year for 7 years would turn a 500K portfolio into a 3.1 Million portfolio. Bernie Madoff wasn8217t claiming that. Why are you still working again I think people would be more convinced if you posted your statements for the last 7 years. Responding to your comment below this: I totally understand your skepticism, and yes, I agree it has served you well. What8217s funny is you and I actually have way more commonalities than differences. I love 99 of this blog and your book I8217ve been passing your book around my wife8217s entire residency program. I too believe in keeping costs very low, being passive, not predicting anything, buy and hold, do it yourself. The slight and main difference is just that I only buy and hold things that are 8220working8221 and am out of, or short, things that are 8220not working.8221 The difference may be slight in thinking, but vast in performance. With Dual Momentum for example, it8217s holding a low-cost equity ETF (SampP500) for literally 80-90 of the time, owning it often for years at a time. Except during recessions. Slight difference, but it more than doubles the long-term CAGR from 7-8year to 16-18, AND reduces the worst drawdowns by half8230it8217s worth the 2 hours it takes to read the book I 8220work8221 because it8217s intellectually stimulating. I think these conversations are fun. I like watching people get that 8220aha8221 moment when they learn something new or different than what they previously thought. I can8217t post my fund statementsdata due to SEC regulations, but that shouldn8217t matter. I don8217t need any new investors, and it8217s not about me. It8217s about trying to share a way of thinking that may help others. And the best part is they can do it themselves, cheaply, simply, and effectively. Sounds like Will Roger8217s investment philosophy: Don8217t gamble take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don8217t go up, don8217t buy it. And last I checked, the SEC doesn8217t regulate an individual posting their own Roth IRA statements. Haha, I like it. Pretty similar actually, you8217re getting closer Just do more of what8217s working, and less of what isn8217t. Not a bad life motto either. I have just two investment strategies I use. The one I created for my privately offered hedge fund which the SEC prevents me from sharing. And the other which is the Dual Momentum strategy which anyone can replicate (and should). These two strategies blend well since their monthly performance correlation is 0.00. All of my Roth IRA, Solo 401k, and Solo Roth 401(k) assets are in Dual Momentum. Here are those returns vs global equity index8230for the past 6 years the system has just held the SampP5008230but notice how it performs during recessions when it switches to bonds: optimalmomentumtrackrecord3.html The reason people attempt to 8220diversify8221 is because they feel like it will help them when recessions come. But what if you could just side-step the majority of the length of each recession Do you still need those diversifying laggards in your portfolio during bull markets I8217d argue no. And Dual Momentum is an example of how to achieve this. Obviously if you could just side step the bear markets you would want to. Who wouldn8217t But it obviously isn8217t that easy. I8217m surprised you can8217t see this. There are millions of people in the world trying. Some are too early getting out. Some too late. Some too early getting back in. Some too late. You can automate and remove some of the emotion, but you8217re still driving while looking in the rear view mirror, like everyone else. This of course ignores transactiontax costs, which can be minimized, but eliminated. It8217s still beyond me why you would use an S038P 500 fund and not a TSM fund. The strategy is maybe 2 pages of the book. The other 175 pages is the good stuff, helping to re-frame the mind into understanding why exactly it will continue to always work. I know it. The author of Dual Momentum knows it, and AQR knows it too. And you don8217t need to buy options at all that8217s just for the extremely paranoid skeptics. The system was still nicely positive in 821787 even after the crash. I just must not be very good at explaining it, or you not good at receiving it. Would be cool to get a 3rd party whom you trust (maybe your pal Swedroe) to read the book or our conversations and see what they think. He8217s probably already even read it. I just think it would be incredible if you, with your following and voice, believed in this stuff and could help other Docs realize the huge benefits from such a beautifully simple system. But it8217s ok, I still like you and have a lot of respect for what you8217re doing. And who knows, maybe someday you8217ll look back and say 8220hey maybe that little whippersnapper of a kid was onto something after all8221 The system was hypothetically nicely positive in 1987. Nobody was actually doing it. See, the way to evaluate these things, and I8217m not sure why this is tough for you, is to take the date the book was published, and look at the data going forward. You apparently haven8217t had the experience yet of seeing something that worked great in the past, but did not in the future. Swedroe, like me, does believe in momentum as a factor last I checked. I8217m not sure he8217d consider me a pal though. The question for someone who believes in momentum, of course, is how big of a bet you want to make on it. Obviously, being a value (buying stuff that hasn8217t done well lately) investor works pretty well. Apparently momentum (buying stuff that has done well lately) also works well. Guess what buy and hold is It8217s a great way to combine those two strategies at ultra-low cost and effort. I agree, buy and hold works very well, and it8217s better than 95 of the other junk out there. I8217m just talking about that other 5 that really is incredible, crushes buy and hold, is much better than All Weather or Risk Parity, and is very simple and achievable. I guess you8217re also right, I have not had the experience yet of seeing what8217s always worked in the past for centuries (selling losers and riding winners) not work in the future8230..makes me wonder if I8217ll ever see it NOT work. For it to not work in the future, the opposite would then hold: profits would be derived from selling winners quickly and holding onto, or better yet adding to, losers Oh boy, now that sounds like the type of negatively asymmetric payoff structure I should build an investing strategy around. I bet my investors would LOVE that Ugh, I can8217t think of a quicker way to consistently lose money. What8217s funny is that8217s actually what the vast majority of investors make the mistake of doing based on their anchoring bias, disposition effect, confirmation bias, overconfidence bias, the list goes on8230 I bet my investors would love to go from making 30yr to losing money consistently by doing the complete opposite of what8217s worked for centuries I8217m glad you8217ve found a technique that not only works for your personal investments, but allows you to earn a living helping others. There are many roads to Dublin. Ahmen, exactly right, many roads to Dublin. Like I tell my wife and our Doc friends, they don8217t need me or any other person or special strategy to make them a lot of money8230they8217ll make plenty enough from working, and if they just protectinvest it via all the topics you cover in your book and blog, they8217ll do wonderfully. I tradeinvest differently strictly for the intellectual pursuit8230and to post on this blog once in a while to maybe stimulate a new way of thinking about markets or investing. Thanks for indulging in this conversation and putting up with me. 1.This is the whole point its extremely easy if people change their thinking (or just read the book). Or any other paper proving this stuff. AQR came out with a free paper a couple months ago showing how its worked on every rolling 10-yr period for the last 100 years. It8217s beyond me why people won8217t just spend literally two hours reading something that literally could make them so much more, while also preventing huge catastrophic losses Simply put, bear markets and bull markets are MASSIVE trends that often last many quarters or even years. Side-stepping bear markets only a couple months into them (ie reactive, not predictive, admittedly these systems do lag by a couple months) does absolute wonders for long-term returns. And then youre back into equities a couple months after a bull market resumes. Thats the point of the book. I agree these strategies would not work if bull markets and bear markets were completely random and lasted only a few days at a time. But they dont. Sure youll get whipsawed once in a while, a couple times every couple years, but it certainly outweighs losing 50 of your portfolio 2. In terms of SampP500 vs TSM, or any other equity exposure fund, I think its just based upon personal preference. The TSM and SampP500 are very similar: stockchartsfreechartsperf. phpVOO, VTSMX To each his own. I dont focus on this stuff. My focus is on not losing money during recessions. I personally like the SampP500 because I can rest assured that I will always have the best 500 companies in the most advanced country in the world for the rest of my life. Its actually actively managed too in the sense that it drops losers and presses winners (since its market cap weighted). Someday when the SampP no longer is performing better than the All World ex-US index, the Dual Momentum strategy switches into that for equity exposure based on relative momentum. The portfolio is literally either 100 in the SampP, or 100 in the All World Equity ex-US, or 100 in short-term bonds, all based on both absolute and relative momentum which is simply calculated on the 1st of each month. The liberating feeling of not needing to predict anything, or worry about anything, is quite nice. The only risk is if the stock index drops massively in a period shorter than a month before the system tells you to switch all into bonds (ala 87 crash). But if youre worried about that, you just buy some short-term, cheap, way out of the money put options to cover that risk. I don8217t need to read the book. You8217ve explained the philosophy. I8217m confident it backtests well. I understand the data on momentum well that AQR is famous for. The question is how well it will work going forward. You don8217t know that, neither does AQR or the authors of the book. I8217m curious as to why you think the S038P 500 represents the 500 best companies. Now I8217ve got to buy options too This strategy is getting more complicated all the time for being super simple. Zach Barnes January 4, 2015 at 4:36 pm Pump8230and dump. There is obviously momentum in the markets, as they are certainly not rational day to day. Really, since a large proportion of the money generated in the market is generated by trading, it makes sense. Things need to move, any direction will do, for folks to make money. I dont think it8217d be terrible to think of momentum in a longer term sense, as bullsbears seem to last a while overall. Kind of a boost to your overall strategy, not necessarily deviating from it. Just like the energy sector being down today and over the near future, but of course it will most likely go back up at least reverting to the mean. I havent looked specifically but there is probably some value and many of these companies pay good dividends and just are falling with sentiment. Stuff like that makes sense, but not as a likely overall strategy, just bargain buying i guess. Dr Khan January 4, 2015 at 4:44 pm If the energy sector goes down and you believe in momentum, then you sell it, not buy it. Its like people in 2013 swear by small cap, how ever small cap did pretty bad in 2014. WCI is there a way to attach a picture or graph to comments 14 david January 3, 2015 at 7:56 am one of the best guest posts to date, I enjoyed Ms. Cicoletti comment about Mr. Robbins, this guy makes people feel better and makes tons of money doing it and that8217s OK. She seems to really understand investment value more than most and I think Mr. Robbins should probably avoid the topic. First, I8217m a fan of Tony8217s his tapes got my 10-year old daughter over her fear of heights and I like the guy personally. Second, I8217m a fan of Dalio8217s a successful investor who is serious about both bow-hunting and meditation is someone I8217d like to know better. But here8217s my problem. I don8217t think Tony understood Ray8217s All-Weather strategy quite. I may be wrong, but I don8217t think Dalio8217s risk parity strategy is managed as easily as allocating more money to bonds than to stocks. Here8217s a quote from Dalio8217s pdf 8220Our Thoughts about Risk Parity and All Weather8221 in the September 16, 2015 issue of Bridgewater Daily Observations where Ray writes about creating a 8216risk-adjusted8217 portfolio: 8220For example, if you put 50 of your money in global stocks and 50 of your money in global bonds, over the last 20 years, the return of your portfolio would have been 98 correlated with stocks and had a return of 6.5. To have diversification, you would need the stocks and bonds to have comparable impacts on your portfolio. You could do that by taking more money out of stocks and putting it in bonds. To do that over that period, you would have had to change the asset mix from 50 50 to about 25 stocks and 75 bonds. If you did that, you would have achieved your diversification and thus reduced the risk by about 3. But you also would have reduced the return by about 50bps.8221 In other words, you can8217t just add more bonds and less stocks without reducing your portfolio rate of return unless, as Kathryn points out in this article, you8217re in a major bull market for bonds. If you did that over, say, the last 100 years, the lower return from bonds would lower the overall portfolio rate of return significantly. You8217d have done much better to put up with the ups and downs of the market and just put your money in a broad market index. What Dalio is trying to do with All Weather is to give a stock market rate of return with much lower risk. Here8217s what he proposes: 8220On the other hand, if you levered up bonds to have a risk that was comparable to the risk of equities, the overall risk of the portfolio would have been virtually the same as the 50 50 portfolio (i. e. 7) and the return would have been about 1.5 greater (8.0 versus 6.5).8221 To sum up, Dalio is saying that to get true risk parity without reducing your rate of return, the right answer is to buy more bonds with borrowed money. The leverage theoretically brings the rate of return in the bond bucket up to the rate of return in the stock bucket. The leverage increases the risk for bonds but decreases the overall risk of the entire portfolio and keeps the return high. My guess is that Dalio and Robbins both realized that levering up bonds isn8217t something the average investor can do so they settled for a very distant second-best idea 8211 to allocate heavier into the bond side of things. Unfortunately, that plan leaves them open to a lot of well-founded criticism. Kathyrn carves up the plan here and the Washington Post does it there and those of us looking for the nirvana of 8216all weather8217 must either learn how to lever bonds like Ray or, like Kathryn, face the probability that nirvana isn8217t quite here yet. The tricky thing is figuring out how to borrow money at a rate lower than the yield on bonds. Buona fortuna. 16 Ester brant February 18, 2016 at 7:33 pm Hmm. My initial reaction was the same8230 So much (long) bonds and after a historic 30 year bull market in bonds. But Ray Dalio is no simpleton. There is more here than meets the eye. One needs to stop and consider what it means to be at the end of a massive bond bull market, why interest rates are stuck at zero (or lower), why so much money printing and so little growth I am reapeatedly reminded of Japan. We may find that where bond yields go all assets classes follow. 17 Liam December 30, 2016 at 1:33 pm Here8217s my challenge. 95 of the population do not understand even a portion of the terms and concepts being thrown around here. I8217m not a financial expert AT ALL, so I8217m honestly coming at this in terms of I want to learn. What I appreciate about the book is that it at least attempts to get people on the right track. Some might say his advice is BS, but would people be better off not investing at all The challenge is writing a book for the general population that makes things straightforward, easy to implement, and effective. So can someone please recommend 3-5 resources for setting up investments And please provide the reasons why they are sound resources (i. e. They will get the results people want). Some people say Bogle, some say Dalio, some say a whole bunch of other people. I want to study this area and other non-financially literate people do too, but unfortunately I8217ve seen just more jargon and random books thrown here and there. Tony Robbins can sell his book because he is selling simplicity. I doubt its perfect advice (by a long shot). But its simple. What are some other simple and easy to understand resources that do the job 8220properly8221
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